Analyzing the trend in COVID-19 data: The structural break approach

In this paper, we have considered three important variables concerning COVID-19 viz., (i) the number of daily new cases, (ii) total and (iii) deaths, proposed a modelling procedure, so that nature trend in these series could be studied appropriately then used for identifying current phase pandemic including containment, if happening /happened, any country. The procedure gives due consideration to structural breaks series. data from four countries, Brazil, India, Italy UK, been study efficacy model. Regarding infection found, using till 19 May 2020, both Brazil India are increasing with infections rising up further up, but UK decreasing/containing suggesting two countries expected free course time provided their respective continues. forecast performance model has also established its superiority, as compared other standard models polynomial exponential models.